Polls, Damn Polls and Offshore Drilling

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With polls showing increased public support for more U.S. offshore oil drilling, John Wihbey cautions, "the framing" of poll questions "is paramount and the media's interpretation crucial." For example, when asked, "Do you prefer more drilling or more investment in alternative energy?," most people choose the latter. But some polls cited in support of increased drilling didn't offer alternatives; one simply asked if respondents would support drilling to "attempt to reduce the price of gasoline." While the trend is clear -- high gas prices have increased support for drilling -- "it remains unclear what mix of remedies the public actually wants." The assumption that new drilling would reduce gas prices is also questionable, meaning that some poll questions may be "built on false premises, a pipe dream held out to a desperate and cash-strapped public." Wall Street Journal blogger Keith Johnson admitted that new drilling "is unlikely to have a near-term 'practical' impact on oil flow, though it could have a 'psychological' one on trading. 'Crude is priced in the futures market, and future price expectations are what moves the market,'" he explained.