Perception of Success Determines Public Support for War

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George W. Bush's Tuesday night national address reflected "a purposeful strategy based on extensive study of public opinion about how to maintain support for a costly and problem-plagued military mission," the Washington Post's Peter Baker and Dan Balz write. The White House consulted the work of Duke University political scientists Peter D. Feaver and Christopher F. Gelpi, who study public opinion during wartime. "The most important single factor in determining public support for a war is the perception that the mission will succeed," Gelpi told the Post. Feaver recently joined the National Security Council, as "special adviser for strategic planning and institutional reform." He questions "the widespread view that public opinion turned sour on the Vietnam War because of mounting casualties that were beamed into living rooms every night. Instead, Bush advisers have concluded that public opinion shifted after opinion leaders signaled that they no longer believed the United States could win," the Post writes.